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☆ 'Big downside revisions coming': A famed economist who called the 2008 recession warns jobs data will shockingly turn sour in the next 6 months — and says a stock-market AI bubble is starting to unrav
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-04 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Over that time, the non-farm payrolls survey showed that the US economy gained 640,000 jobs. In addition to believing jobs data is distorted, Rosenberg has said in recent months that stock prices and valuations are disconnected from the macroeconomic picture. The chart below shows the AI boom — represented by the yellow line — with AI stocks climbing several hundred percent since 2022. Rosenberg ResearchDownturn or no downturnRosenberg has been notoriously bearish over the last couple of years, repeatedly warning of a recession. Pantheon MacroeconomicsAs Rosenberg points out, the longer the Fed keeps rates elevated, the higher the risk of a recession becomes.

Persons: David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch's Organizations: Labor Statistics, Business, Rosenberg Research, BLS, Dynamics, Federal Reserve, Nvidia, Bloomberg, Treasury

☆ Supply and demand curves are shifting in a disinflationary pattern, says Rosenberg Research founder
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-22 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailSupply and demand curves are shifting in a disinflationary pattern, says Rosenberg Research founderDavid Rosenberg, Rosenberg Research founder and president, joins 'Money Movers' to discuss the bond trade, why the Federal Reserve is pivoting, and more.

Persons: Rosenberg, David Rosenberg Organizations: Supply, Rosenberg Research, Federal Reserve

☆ A famed recession indicator is flashing red even as financial markets price in zero chance of a downturn in the coming year, economist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-08 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

A handful of indicators suggest a hard landing is on the way, top economist David Rosenberg warned. A famed recession indicator in the job market is flashing levels similar to the last three downturns. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . The Rosenberg Research founder pointed to several warning signs the US could be on the precipice of a downturn, despite the economy looking strong on the surface. In particular, he pointed to the Sahm Rule — a famous recession indicator that flashes when the three-month moving average of the US unemployment rate climbs 50 basis points from a 12-month low.

Persons: David Rosenberg, —, Rosenberg Organizations: Service, Rosenberg Research

☆ A renowned market bear who called the dot-com bubble warns the AI and economic recovery narratives fueling stocks are weak as analyst optimism sours — and says the Fed is fueling a bubble as valuation
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-06 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

About 45% of changes to S&P 500 analysts' earnings estimates are upgrades, as shown in the chart below, down from 50% in early 2023. AdvertisementSociete GeneraleHistorically, analyst optimism has been a good indicator for the economy's direction. Below is the S&P 500's year-over-year percentage change along with the analyst optimism measure. He says the S&P 500 is in a bubble fueled by AI optimism and could fall as much as around 60%. He sees potential downside of 39% for the S&P 500.

Persons: —, Albert Edwards, Edwards, Powell's, Ed Yardeni, Let's, There's, Jeremy Grantham, David Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch Organizations: Service, Societe Generale, Business, Street, Nasdaq, Generale, Conference, Institute for Supply, subsiding, Fed, repo, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bears, Rosenberg Research, policymaking

☆ The US economy is flashing a recession warning that has only been wrong once in the last century, top economist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-04 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The economy is flashing a recession warning that has only been wrong once in the last 120 years. The ECRI's Leading Economic Index has started to decline in the past year, top economist Lakshman Achuthan said. AdvertisementThe US economy is flashing a classic recession warning that has only shown a false positive once in the last century, according to top economist Lakshman Achuthan. AdvertisementHiring strength seems to lie in non-discretionary areas of the market — which typically occurs before a recession, Achuthan said, as consumers prioritize needs over wants. Job growth in education and health rose around 4% last year, though job growth in every other sector trended near 0%, ECRI data shows.

Persons: Lakshman Achuthan, —, Achuthan, David Rosenberg Organizations: Service, Cycle Research, Rosenberg Research, Atlanta Fed

☆ Now is probably a good time to hedge against downside risk in the stock market. Here are 4 ways you can protect your portfolio — including 2 that are historically cheap.
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-31 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

But with the market at an all-time high, now is probably a good time to hedge against potential downside, experts say. That's especially the case because there's an elevated degree of risk facing stocks, and the cost of some insurance measures is historically cheap. Related storiesThe S&P 500 also looks overextended on a technical basis, according to many measures. AdvertisementRosenberg Research"The definition of a stretched market is one when the S&P 500 gaps 14% or more above the 200-day trendline. Beyond extreme, in fact — back to 1928, the S&P 500 has only drifted this far above the moving average 7% of the time," Rosenberg said.

Persons: Jim Smigiel, they've, Louis Fed, Phillip Colmar, Colmar, David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, Steve Sosnick, we're, Smigiel, Sosnick Organizations: Service, Nvidia, Microsoft, Bank of America's, Survey, Bank of America, SEI, Fed, Louis Fed Inflation, MRB Partners, Rebels, Rosenberg Research, Interactive Brokers Locations: Ukraine, Russia, Israel, Palestine, Suez

☆ 'The higher they go, the harder they fall': A veteran bear says US stocks could crash 39% as earnings disappoint — but investors can manage risk by making these 10 moves now
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-25 | by ( James Faris | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

"And I sort of look at the stock market right now as that clown of the circus blowing up the balloon." That earnings multiple is based on future earnings prospects, the economy, and interest rates. When the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates and the yield curve steepens, he said big banks should bring opportunities. "There will be areas to dip your toes in, but not for the overall market," Rosenberg said. He's bullish on long-term bonds and gold as the Fed cuts interest rates.

Persons: —, David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, he'll, they've, It's, " Rosenberg, he's, He's Organizations: Service, Rosenberg Research, Business, Equity, Federal Reserve, Nikkei Locations: Japan

☆ Why a recession is 4 times more likely than an economic expansion this year, according to economist David Rosenberg
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-19 | by ( Yuheng Zhan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Read previewEconomist David Rosenberg has been sounding the recession alarm in recent months, and he now thinks that the likelihood is much greater that the US sees a contraction this year. The head of Rosenberg Research said he believes that a recession is four times more likely than an economic expansion, and it's just a matter of time as more signals kick in until the recession narrative comes back into focus. [H]istorically, when that's happening, unless it's an aberration, you have a four times greater chance of being in a recession than in an expansion. I think the recession narrative is going to come back, you know, in a, in a fuller view," Rosenberg said. And what that's telling you is that it's getting tougher and tougher for the backlog of unemployed to find a new job," he said.

Persons: —, David Rosenberg, Rosenberg wasn't, Christopher Columbus, Isabella Ferdinand, it's, Rosenberg, They've Organizations: Service, Rosenberg Research, Business, CNBC Locations: United States

☆ Here's why Rosenberg Research founder is still expecting a recession this year
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-18 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailHere's why Rosenberg Research founder is still expecting a recession this yearDavid Rosenberg, Rosenberg Research founder and president, joins 'Money Movers' to discuss why he is sticking with his recession call, what's been surprising on the growth side of the economy, and more.

Persons: David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, what's Organizations: Rosenberg Research

☆ David Rosenberg, Jeremy Grantham, and 4 other market gurus just rang the alarm on a stock market bubble
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-16 | by ( Theron Mohamed | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Here are six recent bubble warnings from experts this week:Advertisement1. "We are nonetheless in a market bubble." Paul Dietrich"The Stock Market Bubble Is About to Burst — Look Out!" AdvertisementGrantham also suggested the AI craze would end and bring the stock market down with it. Michael GayedGayed flagged the recent surge in gold, utility stocks, and long-term Treasury bonds as evidence of mounting market jitters in an InvestorPlace op-ed this week.

Persons: —, David Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch, Rosenberg, Paul Dietrich, Riley Wealth, Jeremy Grantham Stocks, Grantham, Michael Hartnett, Hartnett, Larry Summers, Summers, Michael Gayed Gayed Organizations: Service, Nvidia, Business, Rosenberg Research, North, Bloomberg, Bank of America, Tidal Locations: North American

☆ 'We are still in a market bubble': A famed economist who called the 2008 recession warns the S&P 500 is as vulnerable as it was before its 25% fall in 2022 — and shares 3 signs of hidden weakness
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-16 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Just because the current valuation backdrop isn't as extreme as 1999-2000, we are still in a market bubble, and valuations are even more stretched today than they were at the market peaks in 2007, 1990, and 1980." Rosenberg ResearchSecond, the S&P 500 is outperforming the HYG/TLT Ratio. AdvertisementRosenberg ResearchAnd third, even tech stocks, which have been overwhelmingly supporting the S&P 500, appear to be running out of gas, Rosenberg said. The same goes for Paul Dietrich, the chief strategist at B. Riley Wealth, who says the S&P 500 could fall 49% when the current bubble pops. The bull market has thrown egg onto their faces again and again: since the October 2022 lows, the S&P 500 is up a whopping 42%.

Persons: —, David Rosenberg isn't, Merrill Lynch, Rosenberg, he's, manias, HYG, Michael Hartnett, Jeremy Grantham, Paul Dietrich, Riley Wealth, Dietrich, Grantham, Carol Schleif Organizations: Service, Rosenberg Research, Business, Equity Model, Dow Jones, Dow Transports Index, Bank of America's, Bank, America, BMO Family Office

☆ Recession odds are 'very high' as economy looks poised to see an unemployment wave and plunging consumer spending, chief economist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-14 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The odds of a recession are "very high" in the US, according to Joe LaVorgna. AdvertisementThe odds of the economy tipping into a recession are "very high," as the US is poised to see a wave of unemployment and a major drop in consumer spending. Advertisement"All three of those metrics are still flashing recession," LaVorgna said. AdvertisementStrong consumer spending on goods also looks poised to drop, which could end up dragging economic growth lower, LaVorgna said. "It makes me think recession risk … still has a very high probability," he added.

Persons: Joe LaVorgna, LaVorgna, — Organizations: Service, Nikko Securities, Rosenberg Research, Treasury, Investor Locations: Nikko

☆ Layoffs could be coming as debt-laden firms navigate the pain of higher rates, economists say
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-12 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

That's because aggressive Fed rate hikes haven't been fully felt across the economy. AdvertisementA wave of layoffs could be coming as companies deal with the reality of higher interest rates, economists say. The peak unemployment rate during the Great Recession was 10% in 2009. Following revisions to the prior two months' figures, the unemployment rate also rose to 3.9% in February, its highest level in two years. The unemployment rate is a classic lagging indicator."

Persons: David Rosenberg, —, what's, Steve Briggs, Briggs, Rosenberg Organizations: Service, Rosenberg Research, Briggs, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Fitch

☆ The economy averting a hard landing is 'laughable,' and companies are about to see a profit recession, economist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-11 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The US economy won't dodge a hard landing recession, according to Stephanie Pomboy. That could be followed by a "double-dip" profit recession as corporate earnings take a hit. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementThe US economy can't avoid a hard-landing recession, according to one top economist. She warned in a recent interview of a coming "double-dip" profit recession for US companies, which could cause earnings to nosedive and spark big problems for the economy.

Persons: Stephanie Pomboy, —, Pomboy, David Rosenberg Organizations: Service, ISI, Rosenberg Research

☆ Chase CEO Jamie Dimon and billionaire hedge fund founder Ray Dalio admit they got warnings on US economy wrong — for now
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-10 | by ( Lloyd Lee | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Jamie Dimon and Ray Dalio told WSJ that the US economy's performance has surprised them. AdvertisementChase CEO Jamie Dimon and billionaire hedge-fund founder Ray Dalio appear to be hedging on their doom-and-gloom predictions for the US economy after warning for some time that a recession was imminent. In September 2022, Dalio told MarketWatch that, as stocks and bonds suffer, the US will likely slide into a recession in 2023 or 2024. Advertisement"I was bearish on the economy," Dalio told The Wall Street Journal. Dimon told the newspaper that he "would have thought some of the fiscal stimulus would have worn off by now."

Persons: Jamie Dimon, Ray Dalio, —, Dalio, Dimon, Andrew Hollenhorst, David Rosenberg, CNBC's Organizations: Service, CNBC, Wall Street, Citi's, Rosenberg Research Locations: Ukraine

☆ Why the productivity gains from AI won't be able to prevent a recession
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-01 | by ( Yuheng Zhan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

download the appSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Read previewAs the artificial intelligence-powered stock market rally pushes on, proponents of the technology have posited that it could help ward off a recession that forecasters are calling for. According to David Rosenberg, economist and president of Rosenberg Research, don't get your hopes up. AI won't change the trajectory of the business cycle enough to prevent a downturn. The stock market is not the economy," Rosenberg added.

Persons: —, David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, IMB, Let's Organizations: Service, Rosenberg Research, Business, American, Devices, Intel

☆ Consumers fended off a recession — but keep spending like there's no tomorrow
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-29 | by ( Theron Mohamed | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Read previewAmerican consumers have staved off a recession by relentlessly spending despite soaring inflation, surging interest rates, multi-industry turmoil, and wider economic jitters. AdvertisementBurry predicted that dwindling savings and ballooning debts would choke consumer spending, eroding corporate earnings and sparking a wider recession. That's going to lead to a retrenchment in consumer spending as we get into the new year." That "brings us just a little closer to the consumer recession that nobody believes is going to happen," he added. "With those sources of funding largely exhausted, consumer spending will no doubt grow more slowly than after-tax incomes in future years."

Persons: —, Here's, Michael Burry, Elon, Elon Musk, Spencer Platt, Carl Weinberg, David Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch, Rosenberg, Gary Shilling, Merrill Lynch's, who's, Shilling Organizations: Service, Business, Twitter, Scion Asset Management, Elon Musk, Getty, Rosenberg Research, North Locations: North American

☆ 5 indicators showing the economy isn't as strong as people think, according to top economist Dave Rosenberg
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-27 | by ( Aruni Soni | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

Top economist David Rosenberg says that's not necessarily true. In a recent research note, he listed five indicators that challenge the narrative that the economy is booming. But top economist David Rosenberg says not so fast. The Rosenberg Research president says that while many people are touting strong GDP, job-market, and consumer-spending data, red flags remain. This story is available exclusively to Business Insider subscribers.

Persons: David Rosenberg, that's, Rosenberg, —, There's Organizations: Service, Rosenberg Research, Business

☆ A trusted indicator is fueling recession warnings from Jeremy Grantham and other gurus. What you should know about the Leading Economic Index.
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-21 | by ( Theron Mohamed | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

The Leading Economic Index fell for the 22nd consecutive month in January. This story is available exclusively to Business Insider subscribers. The Leading Economic Index brings all of those together to gauge the future state of the economy across multiple dimensions, from growth and unemployment to consumer demand and homebuilding. Here's a screenshot showing the index's historic decline, from The Conference Board's latest release:AdvertisementThe Leading Economic Index has consistently declined ahead of previous recessions. There's no guarantee these four market veterans are right about the Leading Economic Index.

Persons: —, Here's, joblessness, David Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch, Jeremy Grantham, Jeffrey Gundlach, Gary Shilling, There's Organizations: Service, Business, Conference Board, Treasury, Manufacturers, Institute, Supply, The Conference, Board, Rosenberg Research, North, DoubleLine, Conference Locations: North American

☆ New home construction in the US plummeted to a 5-month low in January
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-20 | by ( Yuheng Zhan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Housing starts collapsed 14.8% month-over-month in January to a five-month low, according to Census Bureau data released Friday. The decline in new construction flies against the trends of strong and rising demand throughout 2023 and into this year. It also marks a reversal from a period of rising supply seen recently, with new housing starts jumping 14.8% last November. David Rosenberg, economist and president of Rosenberg Research, said in a note that it's hard to determine how much seasonal factors like inclement weather played a part in sending construction starts tumbling last month. Rosenberg added that a strong pipeline of multifamily construction will continue to impact the market for the foreseeable future.

Persons: David Rosenberg, West . Rosenberg Organizations: Business, Rosenberg Research Locations: Midwest, West

☆ The US now has an 85% chance of recession in 2024, the highest probability since the Great Financial Crisis, economist David Rosenberg says
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-12 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

There's an 85% chance the US economy will enter a recession in 2024, according to economist David Rosenberg. Rosenberg highlighted a relatively new economic model that has proven to be more timely than the yield curve indicator. "Our conviction that the recession has been delayed but not derailed is still running at a high level," Rosenberg said. AdvertisementA recession is likely to hit the US economy in 2024, according to a new economic model highlighted by economist David Rosenberg. Advertisement"Our conviction that the recession has been delayed but not derailed is still running at a high level," Rosenberg said.

Persons: David Rosenberg, Rosenberg

☆ Baby Boomers are approaching 'peak burden' on the economy
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-04 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

A wave of retiring Boomers means the generation will soon be at "peak burden" to the economy. It's the Baby Boomers, who are aging fast and approaching their "peak burden" years in regard to their drag on the economy and the resources of younger generations. Advertisement"The peak burden is [when] all the baby boomers have hit retirement," Millar told Business Insider. And it isn't the case that Baby Boomers will derail economic growth nearly as much as, say, a full-blown recession, according to Dean Baker, an economist who described the Baby Boomers as a "time bomb" in a 1998 paper. In 2022, empty-nester baby boomers owned 28% of large homes in the US, a Redfin analysis found, double the share of millennial families.

Persons: —, Zers, Jonathan Millar, Millar, Dean Baker, That's, Boomers, David Rosenberg, Baker, Gen Organizations: Boomers, Service, Barclays, National Association of Realtors, Chamber of Commerce, Rosenberg Research, Social, Insurance Trust Fund, Social Security Administration Locations: Millennials

☆ Microsoft's $3 trillion market cap milestone is the latest in a string of wins for Big Tech's elder statesman
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-25 | by ( Dan Defrancesco | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

In today's big story, we're looking at Microsoft notching another big win by briefly reaching a $3 trillion valuation. It's an impressive run for a company often viewed as the least sexy in Big Tech. 3 things in marketsInstagram/grandmabetty33The stock market is looking gray, and that's a bad thing. A famed economist said you shouldn't confuse a booming stock market with a strong economy. Nobel economist Paul Krugman recently wrote about how consumers feel too optimistic about the economy due to the current stock market rally.

Persons: —, Ethan Miller, Phil Rosen, OpenAI, Ashley Stewart, Tim Matsui, Ashley, That's, it's, It'll, aren't, We're, Taylor, Paul Krugman, Patrick Pleul, Mark Zuckerberg, Marc Benioff chatted, Brad Barket, Jon Stewart, Stewart, Trevor Noah, Donald Trump, Jean Carroll's Organizations: Service, Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Big, Rosenberg Research, AP Tesla, EV, Microsoft Windows, Walmart, Comedy Central, Bank of America, Intel, Visa, Southwest Airlines, Comcast Locations: Big Tech

☆ A famed economist who called the 2008 recession warns stocks look 'eerily similar' to how they did before their 25% drop in 2022 — and says the US economy is still heading for a downturn
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-13 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

He is the founder of Rosenberg Research and the former chief economist at Merrill Lynch — and he called the 2008 recession. Rosenberg ResearchRosenberg's model takes into account stock valuations, investor sentiment, market technicals, investor positioning, and macro fundamentals. Here's The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index, which bundles together manufacturing data, bond and stock market performance, housing market activity, and consumer sentiment data. The economy doesn't jump from a tight labor market to layoffs," Rosenberg said in a note on Friday. Labor market and inflation data in the months ahead will tell the story for the US economy.

Persons: David Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch —, Rosenberg, It's, —, Louis, GMO's Jeremy Grantham, Societe Generale's Albert Edwards Organizations: Rosenberg Research, Business, Research, Federal Reserve Bank of St, CNN, National Federation of Independent Businesses, Rosenberg, Societe Generale's, Federal, Labor, CPI

☆ 'We've been in a soft landing all year, the question is what's next', says David Rosenberg
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-20 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via Email'We've been in a soft landing all year, the question is what's next', says David RosenbergDavid Rosenberg, Rosenberg Research, joins 'Fast Money' to talk the state of the markets, what's ahead for the economy and why a soft landing might not be the best outcome.

Persons: David Rosenberg David Rosenberg, Rosenberg Organizations: Rosenberg Research

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